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A globális népesség jelenleg kb. 7.6 millárd fő. A globális élelmiszer-termelő potenciál - időjárás függvényében - 8-12 milliárd között változik.
Veszélyt jelent-e ha ezt elérjük vagy meghaladjuk? Igen, de attól függ kire. Egy élelmiszer-önellátásra képes, gazdaságilag és katonailag is erős ország (pl. USA) lakójára nézve kevésbbé - maximum az élelmiszerárak növekedése miatt az életszínvonala csökkenhet átmenetileg. Egy szegény, túlnépesedett, ütőképes katonai erővel nem rendelkező ország lakójára nézve már igen (ld. a 6,5 reprodukciós rátával rendelkező szegény Afrikai országok). A növekvő árak miatt a szegényebb réteg nem lesz képes megvásárolni a szükséges élelmiszert, az erőforrások egyenletlen eloszlása miatti polgárháborúk, területi konfliktusok szintén veszélyt jelentek az ott élőkre. Más lenne a helyzet, ha a katonai és gazdasági erő máshol koncentrálódna mint az élelmiszer-termelés. A kettő viszont nagyjából kézben van. Lehet India, Kína nem önellátó, de elég erős gazdaságilag, hogy a megfelelő mennyiségű élelmiszert megszerezze magának.

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